Goodbye 2011, hello 2012. What will happen in the world of tech?

A bad year for M$

Well.... Another one. People have been predicting Microsoft's decline for years, usually wrongly. Its too big to go away any time soon, but in every thing that's hot its utterly failed, at the consumer level business is still strong.

99% of people use 10% of the features.

A traditional pc, which means window pc, is primarily used to browse the web, social networking, looking/ managing digital photos and lately watch movies.

If this is what you use your pc for, buy a tablet. I'm going to. Android obviously.

This is the second Christmas to go by since the iPad, the 1st gen android tablets were pretty darn good. Bit bulky, the next gen are not. Sorry fanboys Apple's iOS is no match to android. Microsoft? Where are they. Well they're working on Windows 8 which will be tablet friendly. I've been following win8 to cut though the horse manure. Win 8 will run on ARM, or the chips that run tablets. Currently Windows only works on intel chips. There have been lots of rumours about this. It will/won't run old Windows apps, it will won't/run the old Windows desktop. Microsoft has not put these rumours to bed.

I doubt Apple or the Android tablet makers are losing sleep over win 8. My prediction is Windows 8 for tablets will suck. Why? Microsoft's too late, the boat has sailed, in attempt to compensate they'll try and tie into they're existing strengths such as Legacy compatibility corporate stuff - which will bloat it. They'll try and avoid killing their cash cow - desktop Windows and office that will cripple it.

The only threat Microsoft tablets pose is to the goosberry playbook, business will use it, leave it at work and buy a iPad or android pad for home. oh and you can't give the playbook away.

Not really in the android camp, is the Kindle fire. This is Android, but so Amazonified it might as well be a differnt tablet. Folks the exelent google apps such as maps, navigation gmail etc WILL NOT WORK on the kindle fire. If your going to buy all your ebooks and movies from Amazon, in the way apple force you into the iTunes, and you want it cheap, then try the Kindle. At the price they're selling it though it will do well. Better than windows 8 anyway.

UPDATE: Since writing the above I've bought an Android Tablet the Eee Transformer. I was waiting for the next gen version. Unfortunatly the new version has issues, its WiFi and GPS doesn't work. Review later, but right now, yes, Like, like a lot. Its played every video I've thrown at it It plays any video you like via wifi, I got the optional keyboard is well thought out, I've almost imediatly got used to the keyboard and touch combo.

Smart Phones.

I start writing all this on an android phone on a plane, they're good. I Tom, yes the guy with the ever present laptop. Left it at home, for 2 weeks. 2011 was year of the smartphone, next year will be more of the same. The Apple/Android thing is being fought out in the courts. It's over Android has won. It's better, in terms of what you can do with it. More flexible, and because Google's advertisement monopoly means whatever you do with it Google wins. Admittedly many of the android hand sets are low end but the cheap android phones are still good. Apple is selling their phoes at a much higher premium, and their in love with the 30% charge they slap on everything on iTunes, so they're locked down a lot.

Smart Phones, from blackberry an windows who once strode the coporate world. Neither had an answer the the iPhone. Balmer M$ ceo, laughted at it. He's not laughing now. Another traditional heavyweight Nokia is on the ropes as well. In an attempt to deal with its disaterious plumet from the the smartphone market the once proud company bent over to microsoft and a greed to pick up the soap. Its betting its ass (excuse the metaphor) on windows phone 7. To put it in perespective windows phone 7 can't do stuff that apple were doing 3 or 4 years ago. If its got cut and paste, I havn't heard about it. Nokia's first windows handsets are out. Nobody's buying them. They've reportedly been out sold 10 to one by a single android handset admittedly its the flagship Samsung Galaxy S but there are dozens of android handsets out there.

Microsoft have finally realised that they have to pay the sales people commission to push their phones, but I still recon it will be another bad year for M$ on phones. The rassberry, goosberry.... BLACKBERRY. Is still strugleing. Last time I saw one they'd blinged up their interface, but it still sufferred from old school far to complicated navigation. The rasberry made its name because it was corporate secure and freindly, and most of all becasue email actually worked and worked well. Something that pre iPhone smart phones did not do well. This is not a problem anymore. Much of the improved email support on modern smart phones is down to alternative SMTP ports provided by ISPs and more email providers alowing IMAP. But the rasberry email solution is looking incecingly irelavent.

You have a choise in 2012 apple or Android. The pie phones is slicker than miss july covered in johnsons baby oil. The talk at it bit of the 4s siri is suposed to be great. When I tell my Android phone to navigate to east point reserve it says "Did you mean free porn" so there's a bit of catching up to do there. Android will do nearly every thing the iPhone can and a lot of other things too. Its a little less slick, think without the baby oil but you get to chose which of the other 11 calendar girls you want.

The Laptop.

By Laptop I mean, traditional laptops, desktop replacements, netbooks and ultrabooks. This stupid technobable means either laptops so huge even the incedible hulk doesn't have want one: "desk top replacements" netbooks are those cut down mini low powered laptops, and Ultrabooks are the high end very thin, very portable laptops.

Net books are taking a hit from tablets, a laptop you can do less with with poor keyboard and mouse that costs $350 AUD is a second, portable gadget, you can get a tablet for $400 AUD. They're going to decline as they already have.

The mid range and desktop replacemnts laptops will remain same as they always have.

Ultrabooks are going to save the PC industry. Apparently. Well they're friggin expensive, in fact they're MORE EXPENCIVE THAN THE MACBOOK AIR, which they are a copy of. I can't see a flood of very expensive laptops saving the PC industry especially at that price....

All these laptops are running windows, and still will be. Microsoft had to sell widows awfully cheap to Netbooks, kept windows XP alive longer than it wanted, in short it hated them, but if they dieing cos of Tablets then I can't see them happy.

The Desktop

The cash cow. Microsoft started out in offices on desktop PCs they've a strangle hold on that market, that's not going away. Much of the corporate world is still using XP that's an 11 year old operating system. Windows 8 is another big change, and business is slow beast.

I don't like supporting windows 7 I should approve of it, its more stable and generally better, but for a decade I've been using the same old tricks to get around windows failings. 7 still has failings - but they're harder to get around. I know a little about windows 8 its got an optional new interface - a copy of the oh so successful windows phone. Given the reluctance of business to move from XP they're not going to like it. The signed boot loader is going to make data recovery when windows, inevitably, shits its self, a nightmare.

Business will buy office and Exchange and that cash cow will be as strong as ever. Its ridiculous $270 for the home and business with a new PC only offer of Office is day light robbery. And every time some one buys it and they will much of that will go into propping up the long list of losses above.

One To Watch.

Deep in the depths of the corporate juggernaut of Microsoft is the X-Box game console which is doing quite well thank you very much. More specifically x-box Kinnect. I may not have spelt that correctly. Microsoft, thanks to some Linux hackers may be waking up to what they've got. The X-Box is successful - but frankly who cares. Games make money, but they don't matter.

The Kinnect, is a controller free interface for X-Box. You've heard of the Nintendo Wee. You wave the controller around to play games. Think the same with out the controller. Initially M$ locked the kinnect down - a lot. To stop it being used, or as they thought misused. It didn't work. People hacked it. As a response they've made the API (simple programming language to talk to it) available for PCs.

IF, and I do say if, it works it might just be the next thing in interfaces. Apple brought us the touch based tablet, voice recognition's been crap for a couple of decades nobody relies on it. But being able to wave at things, might just be the next big thing. If they, or since they've released access to it and other people are playing with it, third parties can find uses for it. We might be seeing the sorts of tech houses and gadgets we were promised by the science community 30 years ago. Wave at the telly to tun it on, point up for volume. Clap to turn the lights out couch potatoes dream.

No Jobs, No Hope and No Cash

Ten years ago we had Bob Hope, Jonny Cash and Steve Jobs. Ok so that jokes been done, apple with out Jobs. Well the iPhone is as big as ever, the iPod is over - bar the touch which has become a game console. So long as they stick to the formula, they'll do well.

They are trying again to "Revolutionise the Telly", so are Google. They've both tried it before. Nobody's got the formula right. Not in the way the music industry was transformed by MP3s I think they'll fail again.

The Television is not a personalised experience. Individuals will watch specific things on their laptops phones and tablets. But TV's either background noise or its a communal activity. The only time it really gabs attention is for live sporting events, which is watched by everyone at the same time, in real time so the medium is suitable. Are we ready to give up channel hopping for some internet equivalent. Probably not? Even the iPhone still makes calls to numbers - something that will still be mostly what its used for next year. Yes type number and talk, same as a century ago, likewise we'll still all be changing channels to broadcast telly, or watching in later on computers or tablets.

Linux and open source.

Will, remain out of sight, on your gets proving online services and hosting all that content you consume. Its not making an impact on the desktop - a market windows still owns. Android is Linux, Amazon have taken it an forked it (separated their own version off) for the Kindle fire. Others may follow suit. Right now its hard to chose between different android phones and tablets. Maybe someone will go with their own version of android. Google can't stop them. Given what I said above, maybe some desperate company like Nokia or RIM will try it?

Tom's overly bold tech pedictions.